Okay, let’s try to remain positive about the remainder of the season, even if as I write this I get continuously more and more sad about the outlook. It’s not all over, the world is not ending, it will just be tough for fans and the team to have Jamal Murray on the sidelines for an extended period of time. That’s out of the way, lets just look ahead to tonight’s matchup.
- Jamal Murray – *Hangs head in depression*
- Shaq Harrison – Out
- Victor Oladipo – Questionable
- Gabe Vincent – Probable
- KZ Okpala – Probable
Betting lines (subject to change):
- Denver is -5 favorites
- Opened at -2
- Miami at +5
- Over/under is set at 211.5
- MoneyLine for Denver is -210
- Miami ML is +180
- Under is 9-1 in Heat last 10 road games
- Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 overall
- Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record
- Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings
Still trying to think straight as this is written, and am hurting deeply thinking about Jamal Murray on the sidelines for around 10-12 months… but I’ll give this a go. The Miami Heat are 3rd in points allowed, which is likely why the points total is at 211.5. That combined with 26th in points per game points to a low-scoring affair, but 211.5 is just a bit too low for me.
The only genuine way the Nuggets can exploit the Heat from an offensive standpoint (on paper at least), is from downtown, where Miami is 29th in 3 pointers allowed. With the squad in need of players to step up and score, and Will Barton never short on confidence, expect the over for Barton’s three-point total (1.5). Similarly, expect Duncan Robinson to hit the over for his 12.5 points total, with his affinity from launching from beyond the arc often against a bad 3 point defending team in Denver.
There are your recommendations, but go with your gut and try your best to enjoy this game, it’s not going got be easy.