And here we go. Finally, it’s time for the best and worst day of the NFL season. It’s by far the best day of the season because we all get to see how it ends; and who reigns victorious. It’s the worst because around the time of the trophy presentation you realize that this was the last game until August.
I for one am excited to see the finish; do we get to see the peripheral passing of the torch, or will it be another notch on arguably the greatest career in NFL history?
Sports betting is 100% legal in Colorado, and it’s time for sports fans to get in on the action! With that, we want to ensure Colorado bettors are educated before laying their money on the line, so be sure to check out DenverSportsBetting.com for daily news, trends, and analysis of sports from a betting perspective by Colorado’s premier sports betting centric media outlet.
Chiefs at Bucs: KC is a three-point Favorite and the Game Total is coming in at 56 points
Before the big game gets going let’s talk about some different ways to wager on the big game that will both potentially increase your bankroll and give you some nice water cooler discussions on Monday. Check out up to the minute lines with our friends at SuperBook, this includes all the potential wagers we are about to discuss.
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— Denver Sports Betting (@BettingDenver) February 4, 2021
By now we are all aware of the match up in the big game. Unless you’ve been living in a cave during quarantine you are most likely thinking this game has the defending champs in great position to repeat. The Chiefs are the darling of the league right now; and rightfully so. To quote a real dope rapper ‘their the best thing, since wrestling”. Every Chief’s offensive possession has turned into must watch TV, and has been since Mahomes took the reigns. The Chiefs are virtually the Golden State Warriors from a few seasons ago; they can do no wrong and any flaws are dismissed. But remember the NFL is one game do or die, there is no tomorrow and anything can happen in one game.
Tampa comes into this one undefeated since their Week 12 matchup with these same Chiefs. That’s four straight to end the regular season and three straight road playoff wins. I bet most people didn’t recall this streak. Tampa has the Brady bias, justified or not; Chiefs backers shouldn’t underestimate this Bucs team as a whole.
I mean how many people have made money betting against a Tom Brady led team in February?
This matchup is reminding me of the hype train Before SB50 Carolina vs Denver. The one loss Panthers led by the league MVP were expected to smash the Broncos led by an over aged QB. Those of us in Denver remember how that ended. A massive defensive effort against a suspect offensive line led the Broncos to another Lombardi trophy.
The hype surrounding KC right now is similar to SB50. Casual fans don’t think KC can lose this game. They might be right; it’s tough to bet against the best player on the planet but the Bucs do have a path to victory and as cliché as it sounds it starts with defense.
The only path I see for a Tampa Bay victory begins and ends with a dominant performance from their pass rush and overall defensive line play. KC is heading into Sunday down three starting O-lineman and have had to reshuffle their line due to depth. I’m sure the Chiefs have a plan to deal with any shortcomings their line may endure, but this feeds right into the strength of the Bucs defense. If the Bucs pull this game out it’ll be because of a big play from either JPP or Colorado’s own Shaquil Barrett.
The Chiefs have an easier path to victory in my mind. Just outscore Tom Brady. That’s it, that’s the game plan. Keep scoring touchdowns. Simple yet effective.
I expect a track meet between the 20s in this game. I think both teams will play bend but don’t break defense; meaning there will be lots of room underneath for yards after the catch. Both teams will try to limit big plays, we’ll see a lot of 2 deep safety coverage. Expect a lot of action from TE’s and RBs in this one. Mahomes will have a chance to impact the game with his legs.
Special teams could play a major role in this one; KC has a big advantage in the return game. Mecole Hardman could have big day returning kicks. Typically, I would say whichever team wins the turnover battle will pull this one out. I think turnovers will matter but ultimately i think the more aggressive Red Zone team is going to pull this game out.
Stats and Trends to Consider
- Brady is 40-17-2 against the spread as an underdog in his career
- The Over / Under in Super Bowls is 26-26-1 all time
- On the Season 11 of 19 Tampa games and 9 of 18 Chiefs games have gone Over
- In the last 20 Super Bowls, a Non QB has won MVP 8 times (40%)
- In 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls the Team in White (Tampa) has won (81%)
- The AFC has Covered 5 of the last 6 SBs – Brady account for 3 of those 5
- The Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 has Favorites
- The Bucs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 has Home underdogs
Wagers to Consider
This should be a great game and hopefully it lives up to the hype. No matter which side you root for there will be plenty of excitement. How do you bet against the best player on the planet (Mahomes) and feel comfy? How do you bet against Tom Brady at anything let alone the Super Bowl?
The answer is you don’t. You remember football is a team sport and although the QBs are the most important position; you realize that other positions will impact the outcome. I can’t get past the O-Line issues KC has coming into this game. I think Tampa’s defense will show up and make some big plays. I’m on Tampa Bay +3 and the Tampa Bay Moneyline (+144). I like a Tampa Bay Defender to take home MVP. Right now Shaquil Barrett is at +5000 and JPP is at +8000. Have a great time watching this hopefully epic game and hopefully this helps your bankroll.
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