With the Farmers Insurance Open teeing off this week, the golf season is in full swing. This week’s tournament, at Torrey Pines in La Jolla (Calif.), features the strongest field of the season with Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and major machine Brooks Koepka leading the way.
Like last week’s American Express tournament, this weekend also features two different courses, the South and North courses. The South Course will play host to the 2021 U.S. Open and plays as the hardest of the two, so golfers will have to take advantage of their first-round played on the North Course, some on Thursday and others Friday. The North Course plays over 400 yards shorter than the South.
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With the U.S Open being hosted at the South Course this season, it will be interesting to keep tabs of who performs well over the weekend for later in the season. It could also be a reason some star golfers entered the field this week.
With it being a U.S Open caliber golf course and a star-studded field. This is a tournament that doesn’t lend to many longshots. The last three winners had had pre-tournament odds of 50/1, 13/1 and 13/1. Although, it’s important to note, it is usually easier to find an edge on a favorite as a live bet because their odds won’t change much throughout the tournament (unless they have a big lead).
This week will be the first tournament of the season featuring Poa Annua greens after the first three tournaments were played on Bermuda grass. A few notable names in the field that are known to putt well on Poa Annua greens are Brandt Snedeker, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed.
Marc Leishman is the defending champion and will be looking to repeat this week. Leishman is +3500 (2.8% implied probability) to win this week on SuperBook Colorado. He’s no stranger to the South Course, averaging 1.68 strokes gained on the field per round played. Leishman has been no stranger to Top 10s as well, with four Top 10s and then the win last year. So watch out for Leishman again this week.
While Leishman has had success on this course, one of the stats to take into consideration greatly is driving distance as the South Course is a 7,765-yard Par-72 layout. With this in mind, you’ll want to target golfers that have driving distance as a strength.
Nine of last year’s Top 10 golfers in driving distance are featured in the field this week. These golfers are Cameron Champ (+8000), Ryan Brehm (+40000), Rory McIlroy (+900), Grayson Murray (+50000), Brandon Hagy (+25000), Jason Kokrak (+6000), Sam Burns (+8000), Matthew Wolff (+3500) and Bubba Watson (+4000).
Here are a few bets to consider for this week:
Cameron Champ +200 to finish Top 30
Champ struggled mightily at the American Express last week, shooting 8-over par. This course suits Champ better as it plays to his strength, length off the tee. I like Champ to have a big bounce back and be in contention on the weekend.
Sam Burns +225 to finish Top 30
Burns closed with a 6-under round on Friday at the American Express despite missing the cut. With that round fresh on his mind, look for Burns to take advantage of his length off the tee this week.
Matthew Wolff +3400 to win outright, +175 to finish Top 20
With his performances in majors up to this point in his career, we know Wolff loves the big stage going up against the best golf has to offer. Wolff looked rusty last week but like Champ and Burns, this is a course that fits his style of play.