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Use your instincts, keep your eyes and ears open. Trust your gut, but most importantly, have fun. Here are a few of the Prop Bets to consider in the latest slate of NFL action. Always look for an edge; these are some that caught my eye in Week 14.
Week 14 Player Prop Bets to Consider
Denver at Carolina – Two 4-8 teams battle for pride and draft position. Both teams are plagued with injuries at key positions. Carolina is currently a 3-point favorite, the game total is at 45.5 points meaning the implied score is Carolina 24 Denver 21. Here are some player props to consider.
- Jerry Jeudy Over 3.5 receptions (-136) – “The squeaky wheel gets the grease” Jeudy has been critical in his comments recently, specifically regarding his usage or lack thereof. Look for Denver to target Jeudy early, and often this could be a breakout game for the Lock-Jeudy Combo.
- Jerry Jeudy Over 43.5 Yards receiving (-110) – As I just stated, look for Jeudy to be a featured part of this week’s game plan. If we expect Jeudy to have over 4 receptions Over 43.5 yards is free money.
- Melvin Gordon Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – In recent weeks, Gordon has taken over the lead back duties. With Denver’s game plan simplifying things for Drew Lock, expect the run game to be featured down the stretch. Coming off a season-high 131 yards rushing and now going up against the Carolina defense, which ranks in the bottom 10 for rushing yards allowed; expect Gordon to have a decent day toting the rock.
- Noah Fant Over 38.5 Yards receiving (-110) – Carolina ranks in the bottom five in catches allowed to TE. In recent weeks the Panthers’ defense has given up games of 68,68, 82, 159, and 54 yards to opposing TE. If Lock can hit Fant with at least 3 passes, 38.5 yards is in play.
- Robby Anderson Under 74.5 yards receiving (-110) – Carolina is going to be short in the WR group due to Covid. Anderson and the recently reinstated Curtis Samuel are the only 2 familiar faces Teddy B will have available to throw to. Look for Denver to try and eliminate Anderson from the game plan. Anderson is fully capable of having a big day, but I think it’s unlikely for Denver to not gameplan to stop Carolina’s lone weapon.
Vikings at Buccaneers – This is a game I’m really looking forward to watching. With a 53 point game total and the Bucs favored by 6.5 points, this game has shoot out written all over it. An implied score of Bucs 30 Vikings 23 with two of the league’s worst pass defenses and playmakers galore on both teams this should be a fun high scoring game. Passing all day long for both teams should be expected. Tampa has the best-run defense in the NFL, and Minnesota has one of the worst pass rushes in recent weeks. Here are some player props to consider.
- Kirk Cousins Over 274.5 passing yards (-112) – Cousins last 4 games 305, 307, 314 and 292 passing yards – Cousins has thrown for all these yards despite Dalvin Cook rushing 27, 18, 32 and 30 times in those games. Tampa is beatable through the air look at their recent games against the Rams and Chiefs both QBs had 50 pass attempts.
- Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-155) – If we expect almost 50 pass attempts and consider that Cousins has 11 passing TDs in his last 4 games, I feel pretty good about this number.
- Vikings # 1&2 WRs Over 5.5 receptions (+100) and Over 73.5 Yards receiving (-112) – Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson have the same line and odds for these wagers. If we expect Cousins to approach 50 passes in this game both WRs having big games is completely possible. However, to optimize your profits, I would strongly consider rolling with one of these players and try to parlay their prop bet. Thielen’s last 3 games 8-75-1 TD , 8-123-2 TDs, 4-43-2 TDs. Jefferson’s last 3 games 9-121-1 TDs, 7-70-2 TDs , 3-86-1 TD.
- Players scoring 1 Touchdown– High Game total = lots of touchdowns; here are the best bets, odds to score and season touchdown totals for these players. Mike Evans 11 TDs (-106) , Chris Godwin 3 TDs (+115) Adam Thielen 12 TDs (+105) Gronk 4 TDs (+135) Justin Jefferson 7 TDs (+130) Dalvin Cook 14 TDs (-162)
Colts at Raiders – Colts head into Vegas has 3 point favorites; the game total is set at 51.5 points meaning the implied score is Colts 27 Raiders 24. The Raiders are looking to bounce back after 3 consecutive bad performances, but are likely to be without running back Josh Jacobs. The Colts are coming in hot and look to continue pushing towards the playoffs. Here are some player props to consider.
- Jonathan Taylor – Over 15.5 (-112) receiving yards – Taylor only averages about 3 targets a game; however he averages 11.2 yards per catch – this over is obtainable off one reception- Taylor comes into this matchup off a career game 135 total yards 91 yards rushing and 44 yards receiving off 3 catches.
- Jonathan Taylor – Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-118) – It appears that Taylor has taken over the lead RB duties, and with the positive game flow expected for the Colts in this match up 52.5 rushing yards for Taylor is well within reach.
- Hunter Renfrow – Over 3.5 receptions(+115) /Over 35.5 yards receiving (-112) – Renfrow may be an extension of the Vegas run game this week. With Josh Jacobs not expected to play and with the Colts being one of the top run-stopping defenses in the league Vegas is going to be forced to pass the rock. Expect the Colts to do everything possible to limit TE Darren Waller from having a big game; Colts corners have played outside receivers well all year- this opens up the quick pass and middle of the field for Renfrow. Last 3 games for Renfrow 4 -47 , 7-73 and 2 for 37.