Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers Game 7 Betting Preview, Lines, Odds, Spread, Prop Bets & Analysis

Nuggets

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers Game 7 Betting Preview, Lines, Odds, Spread, Prop Bets & Analysis  

By Cliff Rodriguez @Cliffrod303

Game 7 is why we love sports. The only way to play in a game 7 is to earn it. Competing at the highest level with an equally talented opponent is the pinnacle of competition. One game to decide the fate of your season. One chance to prove the doubters and haters wrong. One chance to continue playing in 2019.

Round 2 of the NBA playoffs between the Nuggets and Trail Blazers has been the most electrifying, tantalizing, memorizing…….and whatever other “izing” words you can think of. In a tied series (3-3) these two teams have exchanged knockout blows; and they both keep coming back for more. History leans towards the home team in situations such as this; but in a one game series anything can happen.

The winner of game 7 will be the team that dominates the boards, wins the turnover battle, hits their free throws, and gets a boost from their bench. Effort and hustle will be a deciding factor. Both teams will make runs during the game. Both teams will get good and bad calls. You know what you’ll get from Dame, CJ, Jokic and Murray, this game will be decided by the hustle and grit of the role players.

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers Betting Info

 

Money line: DEN: (-240) | POR: (+198)

Spread: DEN: -5.5 (-110) | POR: +5.5 (-110)

Total: 212 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: DEN: 68% | POR: 32%

All betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

Quick Stats to Consider Before Wagers are Made

  • Home Teams have gone 32-13 (71.1%) SU in game 7s since 2005

  • During the NBA regular season teams won home games 59.4% of the time; In the NBA Playoffs since 2005 home teams have won 64.2% of the time.

  • Since 2005 home teams in game 7s have won 71.1% of the time

  • Underdogs in game 7(Blazers +5.5) that won game 6 have gone 8-20 SU since 2005

  • The Over has hit in 5 of 6 games this series

  • The Over has hit in 13 of the last 18 games between these teams

  • Since 2005, the Under in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series have gone 96-70 (57.8%). If a majority of bets are placed on the over, the under improves to 88-59 (59.9%).

  • During round 2 of the NBA playoffs if the game total over hit during the 1st half; it always went Over during the 2nd half

Bottomline

Denver has the best home court advantage in the NBA. The altitude combined with the pace of play make it a difficult place to win for road teams. Portland was able to win Game 2 at Pepsi center 97-90. However, the Nuggets had their worst shooting performance of 2019 in game 2. Portland is just 1-7 in their last 8 games at the Pepsi center. Don’t fall in love with the stats, the Trail Blazers are still talented enough to win this game. For Portland to pull off this upset they’ll need a perfect storm. Not only will the Blazers need dominating performances from both Dame and CJ; they need the Nuggets to have an off-night shooting. Denver has been able to win a game when both Dame and CJ lit up the score board. Portland has yet to stop Jokic; and barring foul trouble combined with a poor shooting effort from the rest of Nugget’s roster I don’t think Portland can do it twice in Denver.  

The Plays

The public is heavy on the Over. 74% of the game total bets are currently on the Over. History suggests that in game 7 fade the public and profit from the Under. I love stats and believe that numbers don’t lie, but it’s hard for me to get off the Over here. I think this game is going to be a shootout, I like the Over 212.  

The Props

Paul Millsap has had a big series; I think it continues in game 7. Take Millsap Over 7.5 rebounds. This one is a bit risky, but the current prop bet for Damion Lillard is 29.5 points. I like the Under 29.5 points, I think hero ball combined with solid defense from Harris and Craig will keep Dame in check.