Denver Sports Betting

Nuggets at Spurs Game 4 Betting Preview

Nuggets

Nuggets at Spurs Game 4 Betting Preview

By Cliff Rodriguez @Crod303

 

Just in case you’ve been out of the loop the Spurs are good at home. A decisive 118-108 game 3 victory over the Nuggets showed how important home court and experience is during the playoffs. I don’t think an argument can be had that San Antonio has a better roster than Denver; however better execution and smart basketball can lead to wins in the playoffs.

Most bettors undoubtedly came away from game 3 on the short end of the stick. The Over/Under line was bet down from 212-208 by tip off. So, a score of 226 had to be a shock for most. Although the Over has hit in the last 3 games of the series bettors are once again jumping on the Under which has decreased from 211-208.

 

Game 4 Stats Preview

Spurs lead the series 2-1

Nuggets record 54-28 / 20-21 on the Road

Spurs record 48-34 / 32-9 at Home

Money line: DEN: (+144) | SAS: (-165)

Spread: DEN: +3.5 (-110) | SAS: -3.5 (-110)

Total: 208 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: DEN: 32% | SAS: 68%

 

All betting lines and info from The Action Network

 

Quick stats for thought before wagers are made

Spurs are 22-31 straight up and 19-32-2 Against the Spread in Game 4s under Popovich.

Spurs are 81-49-3 Against the Spread all time has a home playoff favorite.

Denver is 1-4 Against the Spread in its last 5 games including regular season

The total has hit the Over in 5 of Denver’s last 7 games

The total has hit the Under in 17 of the Spurs last 24 games

Denver has the 5th -best scoring defense in the league allowing 106.8 points per game

Denver has held the Spurs to fewer than 105 in 2 of the 3 playoff games

San Antonio scored less than 105 points in 3 of 4 regular season match ups with Denver

 

Bottomline

This is a must win game for Denver and I fully expect a high energy highly focused team to come out and play today. For Denver to get the win they will have to dominate the boards and limit Spurs 2nd and 3rd chance opportunities. The Spurs will want to control the pace of play and capitalize on Denver’s youthful mistakes. This should be a dog fight that comes down to the final buzzer. However, the Spurs are fully capable of turning this game in their favor late if the Nuggets are unable to execute in crunch time.

 

The Plays

The betting community loves the Under at 208 and it’s hard to argue against that number based on the Spurs track record in these types of games. In addition to the Under the public is on the Spurs at -3.5. Although the numbers indicate to take the Spurs; I can’t do it. I’m on the Over and on the Nuggets at +3.5. Watching Denver all season I think they show up today. The starting 5 was called out by their coach after game 3. This move also happened during the regular season and the Nuggets responded with some of their best basketball. Full disclosure I am going with my gut today not the data, base your wagering decisions on who you think will win today and why; and the numbers will make sense to you. I think the Nuggets win today 112-108.

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