Nuggets at Spurs Game 3 Betting Preview
By Cliff Rodriguez @Crod303
After an exciting comeback victory in game 2 the Denver Nuggets head to San Antonio for game 3 of the best of 7 series. The Spurs were able to steal home court advantage from the Nuggets by wining game 1 of the series. The Nuggets found their mojo late in game 2 and appear to have a lot of momentum heading into Thursday nights matchup at the AT&T center. But remember Nuggets fans; Denver has not won a game in San Antonio since March of 2012. But if your scared go to church; this is the playoffs and as we’ve seen through the first 2 games anything can happen.
Game 3 Stats Preview
Nuggets record 54-28 / 20-21 on the Road
Spurs record 48-34 / 32-9 at Home
Money line: DEN: (+138) | SAS: (-162)
Spread: DEN: +3.5 (-110) | SAS: -3.5 (-110)
Total: 210 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: DEN: 65% | SAS: 35%
But in those 2 games the Spurs average margin of victory was 4.5 points.
The Spurs are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 home games.
Denver is 15-25-1 against the spread on the road this season.
Spurs averaged 112.8 points per game at home.
Denver averaged 107.2 points per game on the road.
Denver is 17-24 against the spread on the road.
Denver is 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 games.
After re-watching the first 2 games of this series and crunching some of the recent data between these teams; I think you must trust your gut in this matchup. Playoffs are a different beast and too small of a sample to rely on the data alone. Trust your eyes.
I like Denver at +3.5 and I like the under if the total gets to 211. The Spurs will try to play a slower paced game at home in which they’ll attempt limit Denver’s free throw opportunities and will minimize their own turnovers. A high scoring game at a fast pace favors Denver too much for Popovich to let that happen. I like Denver to keep the game close and find a way to be within 1 possession at the end of the 4th quarter. My money is on this game being in the 103 to 105 range making the game total 208ish.
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