MLB Betting Guide: How to Bet on Baseball

Betting Baseball Successfully Depends on 3-Main Factors
Posted by Arash Ghaemi on April 12, 2019

If you've been following along you've no doubt read our Ultimate Sports Betting Guide and our NBA betting guide. Now that Baseball is in full swing (pun intended), I'd like to go over some important aspects of betting baseball.

Baseball is much different than other sports because there is a lot of variances and it's also a very long season. Think of it more of a marathon and not a sprint. More than any other sport you should stick to strict bankroll guidelines with well-timed higher buyin shots in between games when you see a strong betting signal.

What is a strong betting signal? I'm going to outline the most important MLB baseball betting factors below so you know exactly what to look for. Take your time with betting baseball. In fact, lower your bet sizing until you get a hang of it because it could take you half a season before it starts to click.

Weather Patterns in Baseball

While weather affects other sports it does so in a much larger way in baseball. In football, you can still see a shootout in the rain or snow. In basketball, you never have to worry about any of that. In baseball, a game will never play in the rain or snow.

A very general rule of thumb when betting baseball is that when it's colder it's harder to hit home runs and when it's hotter it's easier to hit home runs. Again, this is very general and there is a little bit more to that but if you start with that at least you'll know what to look for. The weather adversely affects how far the ball will fly when hit and this is especially apparent in higher altitudes.

You'll soon begin to notice that the run lines are much higher in Colorado because we're a mile high and there is less air pressure. Coors Field is like one big fantasy sports science experiment around how weather affects a baseball and it's considered a hitters paradise.

When betting over/under you'll have to be especially cognizant of the weather and when betting on the Colorado Rockies it's even more important.

Stadiums in Baseball Matter

Believe it or not but not all baseball stadiums are the same size! In fact, there are some stadiums that are better for pitchers and some that are better for pitchers. The top 5 stadiums for hitters are:

  • Coors Field (mostly because of the weather)
  • Miller Park
  • Fenway Park
  • Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Rogers Centre

When games are played at these stadiums the oddsmakers inflate the lines. There are statistically more runs scored in the stadiums above. The most pitcher-friendly parks are as follows:

  • PNC Park
  • AT&T Park
  • Dodger Stadium
  • Marlins Park
  • Petco Park

When teams play at the parks above the run lines will be lower because there are statistically fewer runs scored in the parks above. When there are two great pitchers playing at those parks the run line becomes especially low! 

Fade the Public

This is a common theme in sports betting but it's always worth mentioning to remind people how the books set the lines according to public perception. The public goes with their "gut instinct" which more often than not doesn't actually exist!

Don't believe me? Well, just fly to Vegas and walk into the Aria hotel, take a look around, eat at the buffet, and ask yourself, was this place built on winners or losers?

The truth is that most sports bettors AKA the public are losing players. They bet for the thrill of it and not to actually win over the long run. Some people bet to enhance the experience of watching sports. There is nothing wrong with either but just understand that both of these approaches are losing approaches!

When you bet baseball you can learn enough to not only enhance the experience of watching sports but also to win over the long run!

It's also worth mentioning that the books inflate the money line because they know the public loves to bet on favorites. They won't feel as bad if they lose money on the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox but they don't want to get made fun of by their friends for placing a bet and losing on the Baltimore Orioles!

Anything else you need to know about Baseball?

Baseball is a long season that you should take time to learn over time. If you make decisions on the factors above you'll begin to notice patterns as well as the ins and outs of betting baseball.